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Registros recuperados: 121
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A Bayesian Approach to Optimal Cross-Hedging of Cottonseed Products Using Soybean Complex Futures AgEcon
Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Turner, Steven C..
Cottonseed crushers face substantial risk in terms of input and output price variability and they are limited in their planning by the lack of a viable futures contract for cottonseed or cottonseed products. This study examines the feasibility of cross-hedging cottonseed products using the soybean complex futures. Different cross-hedging strategies are evaluated for eight time horizons relative to the expected profit and utility of the crusher. A Bayesian approach is employed to estimate both model parameters and optimal hedge ratios, allowing consistency with expected utility maximization in the presence of estimation risk. The results reveal that both whole cottonseed and cottonseed products can be successfully cross-hedged using soybean complex futures....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Bayesian decision science; Cottonseed; Cross-hedging; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31114
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A MEZŐGAZDASÁGI VÁLLALATI GAZDASÁGTAN FEJLŐDÉSE ÉS A MAI GYAKORLAT AgEcon
Szekely, Csaba.
The development of Hungarian agricultural business economics and management used to evolve in accordance with international leaders of the sector. On the other hand, a paradox situation has emerged in Hungary in the last two decades, in which such knowledge is only partially applied as a consequence of insufficient knowledge transfer and highly restructured agriculture. In the framework of an EU-6 research project, reviewing the agricultural risk management practices of some EU Member States, including Hungary, became possible. The study highlights those issues that are the most characteristic in terms of the level of information, management, marketing and finance. As a conclusion, it can be stated that the level of management of Hungarian agricultural...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Tudástranszfer; Kockázat menedzsment; Felmérés; Szaktanácsadás; Knowledge transfer; Risk management; Survey; Extension; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43414
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A Model of Producer Incentives for Livestock Disease Management AgEcon
Ranjan, Ram; Lubowski, Ruben N..
We examine the management of livestock diseases from the producers' perspective, incorporating information and incentive asymmetries between producers and regulators. Using a dynamic model, we examine responses to different policy options including indemnity payments, subsidies to report at-risk animals, monitoring, and regulatory approaches to decreasing infection risks when perverse incentives and multiple policies interact. This conceptual analysis illustrates the importance of designing efficient combinations of regulatory and incentive-based policies.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Livestock disease; Asymmetric information; Reporting; Indemnities; Risk management; Livestock Production/Industries; C61; D82; Q12; Q18; Q28.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15653
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A PORTFOLIO APPROACH TO LANDSCAPE PLANT PRODUCTION AND MARKETING AgEcon
Purcell, David L.; Turner, Steven C.; Houston, Jack E.; Hall, Charles R..
The ornamental horticultural industry continues to be one of the most rapidly expanding sectors in agriculture. This study examined a decision model for landscape plant production based on portfolio analysis. A quadratic programming model was developed to generate an optimal crop portfolio for a selected southeastern nursery. Empirical results indicate opportunities exist for modest diversification to offset income variability in landscape plant production and marketing.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Landscape plants; Quadratic programming; Portfolio analysis; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1993 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15039
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A Portrait of Participants in Crop Insurance Programs AgEcon
Nimpagaritse, Fabrice.
Farm Analysis Bulletins (FAB) are undertaken to provide a better understanding of Canadian agriculture at the farm level. Using data from various sources such as Census, Farm Financial Surveys (FFS), Taxfiler, NISA database, etc, FAB's provide information on farm situation as well as highlighting and discussing farm related issues. By using the Farm Financial Surveys (1999 to 2004), this bulletin provides characteristics of farmers participating in crop insurance programs. Charts and tables with a brief accompanying text are used to describe participants in crop insurance. Participation rate in crop insurance has grown slightly from 49% in 1999 to 53% in 2003.Grains and oilseeds farms are more likely to participate in crop insurance programs than other...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Crop insurance programs; Risk management; Risk protection; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53099
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Accommodating the Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation and Governance in Conventional Risk Management: Adaptive Collaborative Risk Management (ACRM) Ecology and Society
May, Bradley; Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Environment Canada; Bradley.May@ec.gc.ca; Plummer, Ryan; Brock University, Canada; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; ryan.plummer@brocku.ca.
Risk management is a well established tool for climate change adaptation. It is facing new challenges with the end of climate stationarity and the need to meaningfully engage people in governance issues. The ways in which conventional approaches to risk management can respond to these challenges are explored. Conventional approaches to risk management are summarized, the manner in which they are being advanced as a tool for climate change adaptation is described, and emerging themes in risk management and climate change adaption are documented. It is argued that conventional risk management for climate change adaptation can benefit from the insights and experiences of adaptive co-management. A hybrid approach termed adaptive collaborative risk management...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptive collaborative risk management; Adaptive co-management; Climate change adaptation; Climate change governance; Risk management.
Ano: 2011
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Agribusiness time series forecasting using perceptually important events. Repositório Alice
RODRIGUES, L. S.; REZENDE, S. O.; MOURA, M. F.; MARCACINI, R. M..
Resumo- Modern agribusiness management incorporates instruments for risk management with the objective of mitigating uncertainties to the producer. In this context, the producer (riskaverse) transfer the risk of price oscillation to companies or individuals that operate in the futures market and who expect to receive a payment (risk premium) for assuming such risk. Defining the adequate strategies for risk management depends on the knowledge about the problem to determine prices ranges in the future. Recent studies demonstrate that time series forecasting can be significantly improved by considering additional inforation about the problem. In particular, besides the historical time series, textual knowledge extracted from the news portals, social...
Tipo: Artigo em anais de congresso (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Séries temporais; Agronegócio; Agribusiness; Risk management.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1102768
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Agricultural Risk Management - Experiences from an Action Research Approach AgEcon
Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben Ulf; Andersen, Henning.
A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don't apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk management; Consulting; Action research; Farm families; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24291
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Agricultural Risk Management in the European Union and in the USA AgEcon
Szekely, Csaba; Palinkas, Peter.
Risk management has become increasingly important in virtually all aspects of the economy, including agriculture. Every country that considers agriculture a strategically important economic sector strives for effective risk management in agriculture. In our study American and European Union farmers’ risk management practices were, based on various surveys, compared. In terms of agricultural risk management, major differences between the USA and the EU were evident, and these derive from different farming cultures, differences in historical evolution, and economic philosophy. This study provides an overview regarding the important similarities and dissimilarities.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Risk management; Risk perception; EU; USA; Surveys.; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49193
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Alternative Insurance Indexes for Drought Risk in Developing Countries AgEcon
Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Sommer, Rolf.
The paper compares the risk coping potential of insurances that are based on indices derived from weather (rainfall and temperature) data as well as from crop model and remote sensing analyses. Corresponding indices were computed for the case of wheat production in the Aleppo region of northern Syria, representative for agricultural production systems in many developing countries. The results demonstrate that weather derivatives such as the rainfall sum index (RSI) and the rainfall deficit index (RDI) have a very good potential for coping with risk in semiarid areas. Crop simulation model index (CSI) on the other hand could serve as an alternative to RSI and RDI when historical farm yield data is not available or not reliable. In such cases we simulated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk management; Index insurance; Alternative index; CropSyst; NDVI; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114256
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An Analysis of Farmers’ Perception and Awareness towards Crop Insurance as a Tool for Risk Management in Tamil Nadu AgEcon
Kumar, D. Suresh; Barah, B.C.; Ranganathan, C.R.; Venkatram, R.; Gurunathan, S.; Thirumoorthy, S..
To insulate farmers against risks in agriculture, government has launched several schemes such as National Agricultural Insurance Scheme and weather index based crop insurance schemes. But their coverage seems to be limited among the farmers primarily due to lack of full information. This paper has reported the results of a survey of 600 farmers conducted to assess their perception about various facets of crop insurance schemes. The Probit and Tobit models have been employed to analyse the factors affecting awareness among the farmers. Crop diversification index has also been used to examine the farmers’ adjustment mechanism against risks. The survey has revealed that most farmers (65%) are aware of risk mitigation measures of the government. But, only...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Risk management; Crop diversification index; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q14; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109413
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ENSO (EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) ON GLOBAL CROP YIELDS AgEcon
Ferris, John N..
Forecasts of global crop yields prior to planting have generally been single values, based entirely on past trends. Regression analysis testing a combination of data from ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and ARMA models suggests that yield forecasting errors can be reduced, generating more normal distributions of these errors. Keywords: El Niño, ENSO, forecasting crop yields, long range weather forecasting, agricultural modeling, food security, risk management
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: El Niño; ENSO; Forecasting crop yields; Long range weather forecasting; Agricultural modeling; Food security; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11741
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AN ARCH ANALYSIS OF THE HEDGING PERFORMANCE OF IMMINENTLY MATURING FUTURES CONTRACTS AgEcon
Dahlgran, Roger A..
Hedge ratio estimation studies avoid estimating hedge ratios for imminently maturing futures contracts because of the maturity effect whereby futures price volatility increases as price uncertainty is resolved at contract expiration. This study first points out that a futures-price volatility increase is neither necessary nor sufficient for reduced hedging effectiveness because hedging effectiveness depends on the cash-futures price correlation. To analyze the hedging performance of imminently maturing futures contracts risk is defined as the conditional variance of profit outcomes. The conditional mean is modeled as Brownian motion. This model was fit to cash and futures price data for corn, cotton, feeder cattle, soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Maturity effect; Hedging effectiveness; Risk management; Marketing.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18982
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An Assessment of the Interaction between High Tunnels and Crop Insurance for Specialty Crop Producers AgEcon
Belasco, Eric J.; Chen, Chen; Ponnaluru, Srinivasa Sasdhar; Galinato, Suzette P.; Marsh, Thomas L..
Protective covers, such as high tunnels, are being used by specialty crop producers to enhance production quality and yields, expand or growing seasons, and protect crops from some extreme elements. While growing in popularity, one barrier to larger utilization includes the uncertainty regarding their practices and benefits. This paper recognizes that high tunnels can be used as a form of risk management and examines the relationship with crop insurance in order to better define optimal risk management strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: High tunnels; Specialty crop insurance; Risk management; Production Economics.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103896
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An Insurance Approach to Risk Management in the Ethanol Industry AgEcon
Paulson, Nicholas D.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hart, Chad E.; Hayes, Dermot J..
The vast majority of crop and revenue insurance policies sold in the United States are single-crop policies that insure against low yields or revenues for each crop grown on the farm. But, increasingly, producer income is based more on the value of crops that have been converted into a value-added product such as ethanol. Moreover, the recent increases in energy and com-modity price levels and volatilities emphasize the importance of risk management to ethanol investors. This paper uses an insurance approach to outline a risk management tool which mimics the gross margin level of a typical corn-based ethanol plant. The gross margin, pre-mium, and indemnity levels are calculated on a per bushel basis to enable producers/investors to utilize the product...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Corn-based ethanol; Insurance; Risk management; Correlation; Monte Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44738
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Analysis of Factors Affecting on Risk Management of Wheat Production Among Wheat Farmers (Razavieh Region, Khorasan-E-Razavi Province, Iran) AgEcon
Sookhtanlo, Mojtaba; Sarani, Valiollah.
The main purpose of this study was to analyze the Factors Affecting on risk management in wheat production among farmers of Razavieh region (Khorasan-E-Razavi province, Iran). Statistical population of the study was 1520 farmers that they had water cultivation. By using of stratified proportional random sampling 156 respondents were selected from 8 villages. For the calculation of the risk-aversion coefficient degree among farmers, the Safety First Rule model was used. The findings revealed that the dominant respondents (65%) were risk-averse. The results of exploratory factorial analysis showed that five factors determined about 74.267 % from total variance for wheat farmers' risk management that consist of: economy & marketing management factor,...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Wheat farmers; Risk-aversion; Risk management; Drought; Agricultural extension; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120238
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ANALYSIS OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROPERTIES OF GRAZING CONTRACTS VERSUS FUTURES AND OPTION CONTRACTS AgEcon
Harrison, R. Wes; Bobst, Barry W.; Benson, Fred J.; Meyer, Lee.
A stochastic budget simulator and generalized stochastic dominance are used to compare the risk management properties of grazing contracts to futures and option contracts. The results show that the risks of backgrounding feeder cattle are reduced significantly for pasture owners in a grazing contract. However, the risks of the cattle owner in a grazing contract are not significantly reduced. The results show that generally risk adverse pasture owners prefer grazing contracts to integrated production when traditional hedging is used to manage price risks. In addition, grazing contracts compare favorably with put option contracts for some pasture owners.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Backgrounding; Futures contracts; Grazing contracts; Options contracts; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15117
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Analyzing Crop Revenue Safety Net Program Alternatives and Impacts on Producers and Program Costs AgEcon
Jansen, Jim A.; Lubben, Bradley D.; Stockton, Matthew C..
This study evaluates the policy effects of alternative program designs for federal revenue-based farm income safety net programs. Eight representative farms across Nebraska are used to stochastically simulate the financial impact of changing the current farm crop revenue-based safety net with a state revenue trigger against potential alternative programs involving guarantees at the district, county, or farm level. Results indicate that decreasing the aggregation of the revenue guarantee increases expected farm-level payments and program costs for the revenue-based safety net.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Farm bill; Farm programs; Government payments; Representative farms; Risk management; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119784
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Analyzing Risk and Uncertainty of New Product Marketing: The Case of eMerge Interactive and VerifEYE® AgEcon
Gunderson, Michael A.; Roucan, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W..
This teaching case focuses on the application of decision tools to assist managers making choices in an uncertain business climate. The case considers the difficult task of introducing a new product into the market. Under consideration is a sophisticated, surface-scanning technology that has applications in the food processing, food retail, and health industry sectors. Management of eMerge Interactive is faced with uncertainties in legislation, demand, and competitor response. The case can be used as part of a course in strategy and/or risk management where tools such as influence diagrams, scenario and payoff matrices, decision trees, and real options are introduced.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk management; Influence diagrams; Payoff matrices; Decision trees; And real options; Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8200
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Aspectos econômicos de risco na elevação dos rendimentos de grãos de cereais de inverno sob plantio direto no Brasil. Repositório Alice
SANTOS, H. P. dos; FONTANELI, R. S..
bitstream/item/198226/1/CNPT-ID41895.pdf
Tipo: Capítulo em livro científico (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Trigo; Grain yield; Risk management; Wheat.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/875733
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